Issue 2 | February 03, 2026

When Data Refuses to Stay Silent

There are moments when you walk into a room already knowing that something must change. Not because the system has collapsed, but because it has grown too comfortable. And comfort, left unchecked, eventually becomes costly.

That was my mindset on 22 January 2026 at the NAF Conference Centre in Kado, Abuja. The room was filled with experts, policymakers, seed companies, development partners, and representatives of farmers. On the surface, it looked like another technical meeting. It was not. Beneath the formalities lay a shared truth we could no longer afford to ignore: Nigeria will not fix its seed system with good intentions alone. It will only be fixed with good data.

For far too long, seed varieties have been promoted on the basis of fragmented trials, weak market segmentation, and inherited assumptions. The consequences are not abstract. When a smallholder farmer plants once a year, failure is never academic. It is a household crisis. Missed yields translate into unpaid school fees, depleted savings, and eroded trust in the system meant to serve them. Seeds fail quietly, but their consequences echo loudly. At the Foundation, we came to a difficult but necessary conclusion: “almost working” is no longer acceptable.

The Technical Committee Meeting, convened under the ProSeV Project (Using Performance Data to Promote Improved Seed Varieties in Nigeria) and supported by the Gates Foundation, marked a turning point. For me, it was more than a project milestone. It was a moment of choice. Choosing evidence meant accepting that some long-standing practices would not survive scrutiny. The objective was clear: to build the National Varieties Performance Platform (NVPP), a national system that generates credible, comparable, and evidence-based data on how crop varieties truly perform across Nigeria’s diverse agro-ecological zones.

What stood out most was the honesty in the room. We confronted what has not worked. We asked uncomfortable questions. And we agreed, collectively, on a principle that must now guide our sector: evidence, not sentiment, must drive varietal promotion. By the end of the meeting, that principle had translated into concrete decisions.

For rice, ten lowland and five upland varieties were selected for trials across fifteen states and thirty-four locations, guided by integrated criteria that reflect ecology, farmer preference, resilience, and market relevance. For maize, twenty varieties, including ten hybrids and ten open-pollinated varieties covering all TELA maize lines, were approved for trials in seven states and fourteen locations, ensuring that promotion is driven by performance rather than branding. For cowpea, ten varieties, including SAMPEA 20T, were selected for trials across eight states and fifteen locations, ensuring that performance data reflects both ecological diversity and end-user needs.

One decision carried particular weight: the introduction of Distinctness, Uniformity, and Stability (DUS) assessments for local landraces. This was not merely a technical shift; it was a philosophical one. Locally adapted varieties matter. Farmer knowledge matters. Science must not replace farmers. It must serve them.

We were equally clear-eyed about the road ahead. Climate volatility, shrinking farmer margins, and imminent policy choices leave little room for delay. Risks were identified early, data integrity prioritised, and sustainability treated as non-negotiable. This realism is precisely what gives the NVPP credibility. For farmers, it means seeds that are proven, not promised. For policymakers, it enables decisions anchored in evidence rather than pressure. For partners, it offers confidence that investments are grounded in reality. This is what meaningful reform looks like: quiet, rigorous, and unapologetically farmer-centred.

In my New Year message, I invited you to watch what FSSS would do differently in 2026. This meeting was only one step, but it signals our direction with clarity. We will insist on evidence. We will prioritise impact over assumptions. And we will continue building systems that work for farmers first.

The data has begun to speak. What it reveals next will determine not just what we plant, but how we secure the future of Nigeria’s agriculture.

Isaiah Gabriel, PhD
Executive Director

Accelerating Smallholder Farmers Growth.